Estimated difference between observed and expected cigarette sales indicated monthly excess of 0.34 packs/capita
WEDNESDAY, Oct. 20, 2021 (HealthDay News) — There was an increase in cigarette sales during the COVID-19 pandemic, with about a 14.1 percent increase above expected sales, according to a research letter published online Oct. 19 in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Samuel Asare, Ph.D., from the American Cancer Society in Atlanta, and colleagues estimated changes in cigarette sales in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using an interrupted time series model, observed cigarette sales during March 2020 to June 2021 were compared to expected sales for the same period in the absence of the pandemic, based on long-term declining trends from before the pandemic (January 2007 to February 2020) after adjustment for seasonality.
The researchers found that for all months after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, observed cigarette sales exceeded expected sales. After adjustment for all covariates, the estimated average difference between observed and expected cigarette sales indicated a monthly excess sale of 0.34 packs per capita. This represented a 14.1 percent increase in cigarette sales compared with that expected had the prepandemic trend persisted. Even with a one-month lag from the month when cigarette supply was released from manufacturers to allow for transit of cigarettes to the point of retail sales, the evidence of excess sales was valid (excess sales of 0.17 packs; increase of 9.0 percent).
“Cigarette sales were greater than would have been expected during the pandemic, with slowing of the previous downward trend, suggesting persistent, overall changes in smoking behavior, although individual consumption was not directly measured,” the authors write.
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